By day trading what do you mean? Stock market? Forex market? Bitcoin and altcoin? Something else?Day-trading (or any kind of short-term trading) is something I'd lump into the arbitrage category. You're buying something you think is undervalued, to sell it later when it is (hopefully) more valuable... or overvalued. Again, most of the folks I've met who've tried day-trading are breaking even at best
By day trading what do you mean? Stock market? Forex market? Bitcoin and altcoin?
I think we're in a bull cycle market for Bitcoin, Etherum and some altcoins. By that, I mean buy and hold. The same thing happened in the last two bull markets for bitcoin due to the halving that happens before the bull cycle starts if I'm understanding correctly. You'd want to close your buy orders or convert your instrument back to cash once the bullcycle is over, as cryptocurrency might pullback bigtime once it's over. That's more investing as opposed to trading.
One thing about Upwork. I've applied there multiple times as a writer, and they rejected me every time because they say they have too many writers with the same credentials. Lol? There's loads of other places anyways.
How long would the longer time horizon be? ie where is the crossover point between buying or selling daily, and closing it the same day.... versus buying and selling over a longer period of time.... that period being how long roughly speaking.If you are buying and selling you chosen investment vehicle daily, or nearly so, you are day trading.
Also, as noted earlier, if this is your strategy, you are almost certainly losing money to investors with a longer time horizon.
The smart way to invest is to a.) only use money you don't need, and b.) only put it into assets you expect to appreciate long-term, then c.) once you do, lock those assets away and forget you even have them for a good 15-20 years. Don't collect until they've fully matured.
I don't think you don't need to time the peak 'perfectly' to make a profit like this for bitcoin and maybe some others.
So your opinion is that, it's way to risky to do any form of trading and/or holding/hodl, unless its 15-20yrs?b.) only put it into assets you expect to appreciate long-term, then c.) once you do, lock those assets away and forget you even have them for a good 15-20 years. Don't collect until they've fully matured.
That's smart investing.
Day trading or otherwise trying to time the market is basically just charity for institutional investors.
I've been part of a paid[not expensive to join] private forex forum since the middle of last year. The guy now talks about cryptocurrency as well. I don't "trade the news". I noticed something in the charts and have my own way of trading, and its profitable. It's based on the daily time frame and the trades usually last a few days and sometimes many weeks. That's not how he trades though.There is no timing the market, only time-in the market. The truth about trading is that by doing it alone you are at a huge disadvantage, as you're at the bottom of the information chain so you can only be reacting to news and information when the smart money has already come and gone. Best bet as a retail investor is to take a longer term investor approach, and even better to put your money in a fund or trust and do something better with your time. You won't be able to compete with the investment bankers and hedge fund traders as they simply have far more resources and tools than you do.
The biggest hindrance to any potential gains is yourself so managing your behaviour is largely what will determine how successful you can be. So limit the number of decisions you make, put your money in a trust or fund run by a professional manager (even then 90%+ of fund managers fail to beat their benchmark) and if you're American, just buy an S&P 500 tracker fund and go fishing instead. Most people need to be burnt a number of times before they heed that advice, if they ever do.
JustinBennetFX said:I'm using a time-based target for everything. But if ETH pulls a 2017-style BTC rally, we're looking at $25,000. If it does more of a 2013-style rally, then $50,000 is possible.
If you buy ETHUSD for 1800, and it goes up to 25000 near the end of that maybe 9th month bull market cryptocurrency cycle, and you close it... that looks profitable to me. If you go through a forex broker, my idea would be don't use high leverage on cryptocurrency, easy to be tempted with 500:1 or 100:1 leverage accounts[which might even be too high/risky leverage for normal forex too], but a good idea is to request a leverage change to 1:1 or 2:1 for crypto.JustinBennetFX said:(3/4) If the crypto market cap is truly going to $10 trillion this cycle, and I believe it is (at a minimum), 30% of that would be $3 trillion.
Divide that by the projected circulating supply for #ETH of around 120 million, and you get a price of...
$25,000
(4/4)But that assumes Ethereum doesn't continue to chip away at Bitcoin's dominance.
In my opinion, it will.
In that case, even an ETH price tag of $25,000 may be too conservative.
Have a look at this tweet chart image showing Bitcoins bull market and bear markets over the years, using a monthly time frame.Suggest you talk to the folks on http://old.reddit.com/r/bitcoin about your desired approach.
There are a lot of guys there who have been in Bitcoin for 5+ years, many of whom are very experienced with what you're trying to do.
Notice how the monthly time frame chart that he posted, each time Bitcoin surpassed its previous all time high, we have about 9months of bull market. What happens after that? The bear market for maybe 3years. Market pulls back what, over 50%? Why would I give all that back? I do not have any plans to hold ETHUSD for passed that 9month mark, let alone 5whole years or 15-20years. Why do you suggest going over to reddit to talk to people who might tell me to hold it way passed the bull market ending? If the bull market ends, thats it, close your trade! Why hold it?
He uses order flow data to trade. Basically like knowing who's buying and selling at variety of prices and volume. Think like being in a trading pit full of people buying/selling and jumping in when the big fishes enter the fray.
Don't know how much is applicable to cryptocurrency. But it seems to follow similar principles of order flow. I haven't traded these much.
You're assuming the ability to a.) correctly call the top, then b.) correctly call the bottom.
There may have been a miscommunication. None of my posts here have mentioned any idea about shorting[sell orders] during the cryptocurrency bear market. Which is why, if you buy now, it does not matter if bitcoin reaches 150k or 200k because you timed the top wrong. Thats way more than todays price of bitcoin, you would be in profit. That's the point, 50k to 150k or 200k, how much more do you need? It's profit. Close it. Don't close it and hit sell, just close.So when are you going to sell? At what point?
Why not just leave cryptocurrency alone after the bullmarket, and start buying the dip sometime, maybe a few months, before the next halving? You know, that means after closing your buy order near the end of the bull market[sep/oct 2021], and then not touching cryptocurrency for about 2years and maybe some more I don't have super precise chart in front of me. No need to worry about selling.They scoff at you, telling you how silly you'd be to hold when Bitcoin follows these predictable booms following the halvings, then bear markets after the bubble bursts, and why wouldn't you profit take at the peak then buy back in on the dip...?
You're predicting it'll go down to $70K, at which point you'll start to buy back in. So you've got your funds waiting in reserve, with your call options in place. You watch as it goes from $100K, down to $95K, then back up to $115K, then down to $90K.
Then it goes to $120K. Then $150K.
Should you get back in?
You're still waiting for it to go down to $70K.
Then it hits $170K. $180K. $190K.
Suddenly it's $220K.
Then it's $250K.
$300K.
Eventually it dips down to $275K.
You start thinking maybe you ought to "buy the dip" and get back in... at 1.57x the price you got out at.
You could dollar cost average your way in, maybe some a few months before the 2024 halving, and some within a few months after the halving, and maybe some after that once it starts moving upwards towards its previous all time high.(IMO, the hardest part is not timing the top -- it is deciding when to buy back in. Because you have no idea when that is, and everyone else who sold trying to time the market is also going to be looking at when to buy back in too)
I did read all of what you wrote, we can come back to crypto later.tl;dr: ask yourself if you, as an amateur trader, are going to successfully outwit the market, and all the very, very smart people who do this for a living and have access to all the same charts that you do.
I saw you go and like hey_lover post where he mentioned better to look at it from investor viewpoint not a trading viewpoint, or better get someone else to look after your money. Add to that the two posts I've quoted above by you.Just wanted to share a word of caution here about overconfidence in one's ability to outsmart (or out-luck) the market.
There's a reason guys like Warren Buffett (who makes strategic long-term investments) are worth a lot more than any day trader you can name.
And there's a reason why the wealthiest guys who do do a lot of trading are all on Wall Street doing it with OPM, rather than their own (and getting wealthy off management fees, rather than by a cut of the profits they aim to make).
Are you telling me I can't be a profitable forex trader, because I'm a 'retail' trader and not one of the hedge fund manager big boys or whatever you call them? Even if my trades last a few days to a few weeks, or some months I can't be profitable? To be clear, I'm talking about forex, not crypto.
In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1,000,000 bet with the hedge fund manager Protege Partners that the S&P 500 would perform better than a hand-picked selection of hedge funds.
The S&P 500 has returned 7.1% annually from 2008-2016, while the hedge funds have only returned 2.2%.
According to a 2013 study of the Taiwanese stock market led by economist Brad Barber of the University of California, Davis, Graduate School of Management, and encompassing everyday trade in that market over a 14-year period, less than 1 percent of all participant traders made a profit. Putting it another way, 99 percent of all day traders lost money.
I've got a much better reply coming, but I want to make sure we're talking about the same thing. I mentioned forex. eg a currency trader a forex trader a retail forex trader. Trading currency like the EURUSD or GBPJPY or etc etc. These forex currency traders, their trades based on the daily timeframe chart and they hold them for days/weeks/months basing their trading on the daily timeframe and higher, and you think only 1% of forex/currency retail traders make money? eg your whole post above includes the retail forex traders that I've just described?If you really want to gamble, why not learn card counting and go hit up a casino?
Your odds are INFINITELY better doing things that way than trying to luck your way into the 1% of retail traders who ekes out a small positive return.
According to a 2013 study of the Taiwanese stock market led by economist Brad Barber of the University of California, Davis, Graduate School of Management, and encompassing everyday trade in that market over a 14-year period, less than 1 percent of all participant traders made a profit. Putting it another way, 99 percent of all day traders lost money.
And where does all that money the day traders / retail traders lose go?
So maybe that's what this 2017 paper is based on except it's more about learning and certain learners more likely to be profitable? Do some of the graphs show more than 1% are profitable? Well whatever, doesn't matter because I'm not talking about the stock market or 'day traders':Do Day Traders Rationally Learn about Their AbilityAbstractWe analyze the performance of and learning by individual investors who engage in day trading in Taiwan from 1992 to 2006 and test the proposition that individual investors rationally speculate as day traders in order to learn whether they possess the superior trading ability.
The study does not include traders that hold their trades for more than a day, like I've mentioned.We focus on day traders, those who buy and sell the same stock within a day, as these traders are almost surely speculators.
That is the entire Taiwan stockmarket. I don't think it includes forex/currency traders. Even if it did, if forex/currnecy win and the 'stock market guys' lose, you're lumping them in the same category.Using thecomplete transaction data for the Taiwan Stock Market over 15 years (1992 to 2006), we find evidence of learning among day trader