as for dogecoin you should check out this post on /r/cryptocurrency it does a better job at explaining the risks of doge coin better than I can.
- Joined
- Oct 26, 2020
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This is Bitcoin's current position compared to the last 2 bull run cycles. (Day 1 starts from the day of the halving for Bitcoin and last day being ATH)
According to the graph, we're about half-way done through this bull run. If we continue with this trajectory (which is similar to the last 2 bull runs), this bull run should end around the month of September. (ATH)
People have argued against this because of few reasons with the "This time it's different counter-argument"
A. Coronavirus & Pandemic - Causing major money printing without money circulation
B. Major Players getting into Bitcoin - Such as Elon Musk, Square, Paypal, Etc
But the argument of "this time it's different" have existed each bull run, just different reasons.
Take it from what you will.
I'm currently only in Ethereum and plan to take out most of my positions around September.
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I'm mostly in ETH too, never selling.
the who world financial system will change in the next decade,
Countries are developing their CBDCs (central bank digital currencies),
we have DeFI,
Games
NFTs
web3
Ethereum is scaling
visa uses Ethereum
technical analysis doesn't mean much to me.
I go off fundamentals.
sound economic policy = price appreciation over time.
I may not be able to take credit for all of the ideas here, but Justin Bennett posts stuff up on his twitter alot/sometimes replies other ideas.
This leg lower of the current bull market bull cycle, the bottom might be in. Keyword, might be. Using the Total cyrpto market cap, and a logarithmic scale, we have had a 39% pullback. The previous pullbacks[the recent ones in April, February, January] were 29%, 28% ,29%. So the spiker a bit lower here, might be a signal that the bottom is in or not far off.
Also ,since the last high of about 2.575 Total market cap, daily timeframe, its been 7days. The other pullbacks ,two of them were 8days. By this I mean, from high to low. It will take more days than that to go and make a higher high, but maybe the bottom is in. Wasn't my idea to look at it like that, but I think that's a good way to look at it, the idea came from same person further below.
Ethereum might find support now its come down to the 2500area, daily timeframe. No guarantees of course. Previously ,it had a next day "instant retest" only, and now it has come back for a retest of that area as possible support. There's also a trendline from 4th of January onwards[instant retest as the start] and if you draw that up, there's support/resistance along the way, and if Ethereum closes at about 2700 today, that would be right on that trendline.
The sp500 had become very stretched on the monthly time frame, just from a quick look, and when that pullsback ,sometimes the cryptos have as well in the last few weeks iirc. But another quick looks, sp500 seems to pullback to halfway between 23 and 38fib on the monthly timeframe, sometimes more, maybe for now, it will go up again, along with crypto.
What was it, Ethereum not had a red month this bull cycle? It's definitely had 7x green bars in a row on the monthly, never seen before.
For it to have a red month this month, it would need to close the month at the 2800area. Maybe price will go sideways for the next week and a half until next month.
This leg lower of the current bull market bull cycle, the bottom might be in. Keyword, might be. Using the Total cyrpto market cap, and a logarithmic scale, we have had a 39% pullback. The previous pullbacks[the recent ones in April, February, January] were 29%, 28% ,29%. So the spiker a bit lower here, might be a signal that the bottom is in or not far off.
Also ,since the last high of about 2.575 Total market cap, daily timeframe, its been 7days. The other pullbacks ,two of them were 8days. By this I mean, from high to low. It will take more days than that to go and make a higher high, but maybe the bottom is in. Wasn't my idea to look at it like that, but I think that's a good way to look at it, the idea came from same person further below.
Ethereum might find support now its come down to the 2500area, daily timeframe. No guarantees of course. Previously ,it had a next day "instant retest" only, and now it has come back for a retest of that area as possible support. There's also a trendline from 4th of January onwards[instant retest as the start] and if you draw that up, there's support/resistance along the way, and if Ethereum closes at about 2700 today, that would be right on that trendline.
The sp500 had become very stretched on the monthly time frame, just from a quick look, and when that pullsback ,sometimes the cryptos have as well in the last few weeks iirc. But another quick looks, sp500 seems to pullback to halfway between 23 and 38fib on the monthly timeframe, sometimes more, maybe for now, it will go up again, along with crypto.
What was it, Ethereum not had a red month this bull cycle? It's definitely had 7x green bars in a row on the monthly, never seen before.
For it to have a red month this month, it would need to close the month at the 2800area. Maybe price will go sideways for the next week and a half until next month.
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- Joined
- Feb 6, 2020
- Messages
- 403
I want ADA, Dot, and Link to come down. Ethereum at 1K would be nice too, but I'm not expecting that.
Hold the Line
Buy the Dip
WIA
Hold the Line
Buy the Dip
WIA
Any reason why you want them all to come down so much? Did you close too many orders up high?
I did close some Ethereum with it ranging 4hr time frame over last few days iirc, then buy a bit close a bit, then buy some more and just left it there because, what if that was the bottom. Clearly it wasnt! But in case it aws. But I had also left some on even further down incase I didn't time the bottom and missed out. I've dollar cost averaged in a bit as its come down last couple days after my little buy and close before that.
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- Feb 6, 2020
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Overall, Technology changes. And it's not necessarily that "one chain will rule them all" - there are innumerable numbers of financial companies in services in the world of fiat currency.
I have a lot of faith in Smart Contracts as a whole. I really do think that's the future of finance, so ETH is the big player there.
Dot and ADA are my hedges against ETH. If I extra funds, I'd buy more AVAX, Solana, Elrond, Algorand, Polygon, etc. If there was a Smart Contract ETF, I'd buy into that easily.
Link is the leader in oracles. Those 4 plus BTC are good "blue chips" for the space, imo.
For my more speculative plays, I need to jump on some of the stuff in the ADA ecosystem.
It'd be easy to make this a full time job if I didn't have a full time job
WIA
I've risked a small amount on ADA given the good things I've heard.
But really, they make each coin sound like the next best thing whenever I research. And the subreddits... They all seem cultish for whatever coin they're keen on. Even Doge when I visited.
Just checked out the crypto market. A LOT of bleeding going on. May be due to China's news about crypto. Wonder if they're short on these lol.
My ADA position is destroyed hahah. I'll wait it out though.
Amazing how BTC was 60k a while back and now is nearly half that.
This reminds me of the dot com bubble. If you pick right (ex. Amazon), you'll do great. But how to know which one of these coins will be the few (if any) to succeed?
But really, they make each coin sound like the next best thing whenever I research. And the subreddits... They all seem cultish for whatever coin they're keen on. Even Doge when I visited.
Just checked out the crypto market. A LOT of bleeding going on. May be due to China's news about crypto. Wonder if they're short on these lol.
My ADA position is destroyed hahah. I'll wait it out though.
Amazing how BTC was 60k a while back and now is nearly half that.
This reminds me of the dot com bubble. If you pick right (ex. Amazon), you'll do great. But how to know which one of these coins will be the few (if any) to succeed?
Hey guys,
I would like to know the motivations behind trading crypto, (it would help me since I am involved in the making of a business related to the prediction of cryptos volatility/closing price by algorithmic means)
Why have you chosen to invest in cryptocurrencies?
What are you expecting from it?
Do you mostly do very short term (same day or next day), short term (less than 2 weeks), mid or long term investments?
How would you rate your level of knowledge? (technical, information you have access to, experience, etc)?
I'd be very interested to know this! Thx! =)
I would like to know the motivations behind trading crypto, (it would help me since I am involved in the making of a business related to the prediction of cryptos volatility/closing price by algorithmic means)
Why have you chosen to invest in cryptocurrencies?
What are you expecting from it?
Do you mostly do very short term (same day or next day), short term (less than 2 weeks), mid or long term investments?
How would you rate your level of knowledge? (technical, information you have access to, experience, etc)?
I'd be very interested to know this! Thx! =)
@Max klitz Here are my responses to your questions. You may want to try surveying crypto forums too get a bigger sample size:
Why have you chosen to invest in cryptocurrencies? I see crypto as the new frontier so I wanted to profit if possible.
What are you expecting from it? I just did a small bet on a crypto. Hoping to get 2x - 10x my initial investment in a months-year time span.
Do you mostly do very short term (same day or next day), short term (less than 2 weeks), mid or long term investments? My past crypto trades (2) were short-term (3 days max). This recent one I plan to hold for months-years. I just see it as a fancier lotto ticket.
How would you rate your level of knowledge? (technical, information you have access to, experience, etc)? Very minimal. I just read blurbs here and there about ADA and Doge. In my trading journey, I feel a lot of the info out there is buzz or noise. So I've taken a minimalist approach to trading. I would use trend analysis and momentum/hype to enter/exit trades.
Why have you chosen to invest in cryptocurrencies? I see crypto as the new frontier so I wanted to profit if possible.
What are you expecting from it? I just did a small bet on a crypto. Hoping to get 2x - 10x my initial investment in a months-year time span.
Do you mostly do very short term (same day or next day), short term (less than 2 weeks), mid or long term investments? My past crypto trades (2) were short-term (3 days max). This recent one I plan to hold for months-years. I just see it as a fancier lotto ticket.
How would you rate your level of knowledge? (technical, information you have access to, experience, etc)? Very minimal. I just read blurbs here and there about ADA and Doge. In my trading journey, I feel a lot of the info out there is buzz or noise. So I've taken a minimalist approach to trading. I would use trend analysis and momentum/hype to enter/exit trades.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2020
- Messages
- 403
I just started in the field this year.
Why Crypto
- Not the tech per se. it was interesting from the beginning, but I'm not a libertarian.
- Not Inflation
- Yes for the gains long term and short term
Expect
Before I spent a dollar, it looked like gambling. Put a few bucks in Ethereum and see what happens
After buying crypto and reading up on everything (and have a bit of exposure to Wall Street thinking via my job) - this is the future, without a doubt.
Short term, Mid, Long?
Short - I'm not a gambler
Mid - I'm saying really great gains by end of year/end of bull run
Long Term - whatever gains I make I want to put into Blue Chips for the future.
Level of Knowledge
Not nearly enough. Beginner. But it's like the Wild Wild West of Stock Trading
WIA
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2019
- Messages
- 256
I’m loading up,
I bought some BAT, Bitcoin.
I don’t think it crashes any further, I think we are in the fake bear trap and I’m getting my tickets for the big rocket.
I bought some BAT, Bitcoin.
I don’t think it crashes any further, I think we are in the fake bear trap and I’m getting my tickets for the big rocket.
Bought a bit of BAT for fun myself haha.
Also interesting read about crypto and how margin calls may have been the driver for the recent sell off:
It could be, I wonder if that news might have some FUD. You're not wrong about the bleeding.
It could be expected a bit, since Ethereum for example has had 7 straight green candles on the monthly, something not done before. Plus, at least for Ethereum, price has come back down[so close to touching it, maybe you'd still count it] to the support level of a trendline on the daily chart, which would make 3 touches for that line now. ie, that might have predicted price might come this low from previous touches on this line.
Something else though, there have been a lot of BTC inflows on different exchanges. Which I think is what you're saying about margin calls... eg in other words, hitting the liquidation prices below the buy orders.
eg recently
This sounds familiar. Now where has this happened before? That's right, a few weeks/months ago.
Here's a quick summary of one of his cryptocadamy newsletter youtube videos from March:
F2pool outflows. massive outflow right at the top, it was over 3,500bitcoin. it was within a few hours of the 60k all time high.
bitmex had a single inflow of 941bitcoin within a single hour, and it occurred right near a top.
inflow, then btc went from 54,000 to 45,000. That was a big drop. The inflow occurred right near rthe top/
What do you think was happening with that 941bitcoin? Was it just sitting there... or getting leveraged into a short position?
Kraken inflow, also had a huge inflow. 7,676 bitcoin. Oonly groups that have that much bitcoin access are the miners. Can't prove that it's f2pool specifically.... has to be one of the larger ones. 7,676 thats MASSIVE amount of bitcoin. groups like f2pool the only ones that would have access to that kind of bitcoin.
Some of these exchanges have 50x or 100x leverage, suddenly those 200millions bitcoincs turns into billions and that can move bitcoin.
These guys who are doing this, they're not just dumping anywhere. They're smart. They're not selling bitcoin at random. They're waiting for this huge runups to occur before they short, before using this tactic. eg 100% rally, then they did it again. They're waiting until longs are getting overleveraged and hitting the liquidation prices below the buy orders.
They're profiting 3 ways:
1. bitcoin that they sell[eg the miners I think he means]
2. short the market, with the bitcoin that they've mined
3. buying the bottom. can't prove it but if you look at the data...
if they're controlling the market and making the lows and highs, they'd be foolish to not buy the bottoms once they know where it will be. The bottom is whenever they stop selling. If it weren't happening we would avoid all these flash crashes.
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The bull run is over.
Don't catch a falling knife.
Wait until 2023 when the bear market runs its course.
You are guaranteed to buy what you want at a cheaper price then.
I don't have any free cash but I'd be shorting hard if I did.
Don't catch a falling knife.
Wait until 2023 when the bear market runs its course.
You are guaranteed to buy what you want at a cheaper price then.
I don't have any free cash but I'd be shorting hard if I did.