Anyone Trading Crypto?

[foggy]

The bull run is over.

what causes you to think this?

 

[themino]

i’m an Eth dev
in it for the long term
this technology will create the next Silicon Vally + Wall St

 

[PalmaSailor]

Has anyone got any idea what the fundamentals are that are propping up the “value” of crypto.

I can see a lot of dirty money needs a home, but apart from that I can’t see it.

To me it looks like the biggest bull run in history.

I may turn out to be wrong, and it may be a fundamental tectonic shift, but if it is I’d like to understand those fundamentals.

anyone got a clue?

 

[hey_lover]

what causes you to think this?

There was buying exhaustion at 63.5k and the trend has now reversed.

The crypto market follows the same pattern and is cyclical. The bull markets in 2013/14 and 2017/18 were precipitated by the halving of rewards for bitcoin mining. The same happened again after halving occurred in May 2020.

 

[hey_lover]

Has anyone got any idea what the fundamentals are that are propping up the “value” of crypto.

I can see a lot of dirty money needs a home, but apart from that I can’t see it.

To me it looks like the biggest bull run in history.

I may turn out to be wrong, and it may be a fundamental tectonic shift, but if it is I’d like to understand those fundamentals.

anyone got a clue?

There aren't any fundamentals.

It's pure speculation on the future value of the technology.

 

[themino]

Has anyone got any idea what the fundamentals are that are propping up the “value” of crypto.

I can see a lot of dirty money needs a home, but apart from that I can’t see it.

To me it looks like the biggest bull run in history.

I may turn out to be wrong, and it may be a fundamental tectonic shift, but if it is I’d like to understand those fundamentals.

anyone got a clue?

Start with bitcoin as it's the 1st and largest cryptocurrency.
The best resource on BTC fundamentals is the book "The Bitcoin Standard"
Here's a summary of the Book https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/the-bitcoin-standard-book-summary-and-notes/
Here's another article on BTC fundamentals https://michaelmcguiness.com/essays/why-bitcoin-makes-sense

Next dive into ETH, the 2nd largest cryptocurrency.
Here is an article on ETH fundamentals https://michaelmcguiness.com/essays/why-eth-will-win-store-of-value

Fundamentals to other coins can be similar to these two and usually involve analyzing revenue produced, how many people use the coin/blockchain product, current market cap vs projected market cap.
https://cryptofees.info/

 

[PalmaSailor]

Thanks for your input guys. There’s still nothing to convince me it’s more than a bubble.

I wish it were true that a real alternative to government controlled currencies existed, but I don’t believe that there is.

I just think everyone is going to lose a lot of£

 

[OnwardsAndUpwards]

We're in a little bit of a dip. But I've been around crypto investing since 2013 and can tell you the current bubble is not yet over.

 

[Rain]

There was buying exhaustion at 63.5k and the trend has now reversed.

The crypto market follows the same pattern and is cyclical. The bull markets in 2013/14 and 2017/18 were precipitated by the halving of rewards for bitcoin mining. The same happened again after halving occurred in May 2020.

So that's it? You're saying the market won't go back anywhere near 65k bitcoin or even higher before 2023?

Bitcoin had an 81% pullback in 2013, before a 2,000% rally. Probably won't get a 2,000% rally this time But no way is the bullmarket 100% over like you're saying. It might be, no guarantees. It's also highly unlikely at this point in time.

We still have a trendline in play from March 2020 to now[daily timeframe, draw it from the close], that has not been broken on the daily time frame. Bitcoin would have to go below about 25k for that to be broken. 20k would be the must hold level. Maybe someone mentioned it, but bitcoin has never retested a previous all time high during a bullmarket before, so maybe that's not a good sign if it went down there, or at least if it closed below it.

There's also the timing. When bitcoin closed above the all time high in February 2013, and closed above another all time high in April 2017, we had roughly 9months of 'bullmarket' before the final top. We currently, since bitcoin went above the previous all time high in December 2020, we are currently only in month 6.

Based on the current data, the bullmarket is not able to be defined as "over".

 

[PalmaSailor]

We're in a little bit of a dip. But I've been around crypto investing since 2013 and can tell you the current bubble is not yet over.

The thing to remember is that bubbles don’t deflate - they burst. And it happens too fast to exit.

 

[West_Indian_Archie]

Thanks for your input guys. There’s still nothing to convince me it’s more than a bubble.

I wish it were true that a real alternative to government controlled currencies existed, but I don’t believe that there is.

I just think everyone is going to lose a lot of£

It's been a 10+ year bubble. You could only buy black market goods at one point - and that's only because people on the black market thought internet funny money had value. Now you can buy cars and real estate with it.

As long as people believe it has value, it has value. See Modern Art.

 

[OnwardsAndUpwards]

The thing to remember is that bubbles don’t deflate - they burst. And it happens too fast to exit.

Yep, and I've seen this shit play out multiple times before. We've not reached peak mania yet.

When inflation (very possibly) starts picking up more in the coming months, there easily could be flood of money into bitcoin to protect against it.

 

[DaVinciMatrixStyle]

The bull run is over.

Lmao no it's not.

 

[MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla]

Very very super boring week in the stock market. Super boring week in crypto as well.

I loaded up on some BTC, Considering GameStop and AMC have found a third wind I’m shocked.

Truly a clown market.

Anybody keeping shorts on cryptos? I’m looking at getting into ADA and Chainlink

Must0

 

[hey_lover]

So that's it? You're saying the market won't go back anywhere near 65k bitcoin or even higher before 2023?

Bitcoin had an 81% pullback in 2013, before a 2,000% rally. Probably won't get a 2,000% rally this time But no way is the bullmarket 100% over like you're saying. It might be, no guarantees. It's also highly unlikely at this point in time.

We still have a trendline in play from March 2020 to now[daily timeframe, draw it from the close], that has not been broken on the daily time frame. Bitcoin would have to go below about 25k for that to be broken. 20k would be the must hold level. Maybe someone mentioned it, but bitcoin has never retested a previous all time high during a bullmarket before, so maybe that's not a good sign if it went down there, or at least if it closed below it.

There's also the timing. When bitcoin closed above the all time high in February 2013, and closed above another all time high in April 2017, we had roughly 9months of 'bullmarket' before the final top. We currently, since bitcoin went above the previous all time high in December 2020, we are currently only in month 6.

Based on the current data, the bullmarket is not able to be defined as "over".

The first bull run lasted around 1 year and 1 month (BTC price action only) from halving to the peak.

The second bull run lasted around 1 year and 3 months (BTC only) from halving to the peak.

The current bull run has been ongoing for 1 year since halving last year.

Maybe it's over, maybe it's not but either way, I don't see a lot of upside at this stage. The market cap was near 1 trillion at 63k USD and there was clear buying exhaustion after the fourth major correction. The rise that followed in May did not exceed the peak established in April and the asset is still richly priced even at the 500bn it currently stands at.

This is obviously my own analysis.

 

[Rain]

The market cap was near 1 trillion at 63k USD and there was clear buying exhaustion after the fourth major correction. The rise that followed in May did not exceed the peak established in April and the asset is still richly priced even at the 500bn it currently stands at.

Possibly already covered by the 81% big pullback in 2013 I mentioned, then big rally after it. It wasn't over.

The second bull run lasted around 1 year and 3 months (BTC only) from halving to the peak

Halving in July 2016, peak in December 2017. That's 18months.

 

[hey_lover]

Halving in July 2016, peak in December 2017. That's 18months.

Not quite. If we want to be exact then it was 1 years, 5 months and 9 days.

 

[Rain]

Not quite. If we want to be exact then it was 1 years, 5 months and 9 days.

17months is alot further into the future then where we are right now[12months]. Using halving as the start time, maybe this bullrun is a few months longer than the 2016 one, as the 2016 one was a few months longer than the 2012 one.

Or maybe it's over like you say.

But going by the 'new all time high monthly close' as the start of the bullrun timeframe, as opposed to the 'halving' suggests its not over.

We may even see a 20k retest of BTC, potentially as a part of this bullrun.

 

[MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla]

17months is alot further into the future then where we are right now[12months]. Using halving as the start time, maybe this bullrun is a few months longer than the 2016 one, as the 2016 one was a few months longer than the 2012 one.

Or maybe it's over like you say.

But going by the 'new all time high monthly close' as the start of the bullrun timeframe, as opposed to the 'halving' suggests its not over.

We may even see a 20k retest of BTC, potentially as a part of this bullrun.

There has just been no action this week with crypto yet once again AMC and GameStop.

I’m ready for the crypto to rocket again, but it’s an odd time. SOXL has had issues re reaching above forty bucks last couple of weeks which is absurd. So I’m theorizing that the semi conductors are starting to fuck with crypto.

I am aware of now there being a debit card you can use from Coinbase, but since it’s a publicly traded stock I have zero faith in holding my crypto there.

My last thought is could we possibly be seeing issues like Mt.Grox? Where it just gets shutdown by the feds?

Cheers MustO

 

[Rain]

Didn't Mt.Grox shut itself down after losing some bitcoins and other issues? But I don't think crypto is going to get shut down by governments, generally speaking.

Yeah a bit of sideways movement this week. Ethereum finally had a red candle on the monthly close last month. Now that its done that, it might be more free to go up. Or it might have another red candle. But I'm glad its done that red candle month now. If it only has one in the next few months I'd rather it be now, so its out of the way[barring this month being red as well for example].