Anyone Trading Crypto?

[themino]

I don't think the bull market is off. But I'm not sure there is enough data to suggest pullbacks are over. So I wondered what your analysis was that makes you say that?

if we are in a clear uptrend I don’t try to time the pullback because then I miss the fat green daily candles. I look out for a break of clear levels of resistance to confirm a change in trend (BTC 40k) then no resistance till 50k. I also knew the market was bearish (funding rates were negative) but we didn’t drop past 29k tested 3 times, and OI wasn’t very high so there wasn’t much leverage. this means the down trend was dying out. once shorts got liquidated on the big green candle to 35k, sentiment started to change, less fear. big candles = strong bull trend to counter the weakening bear trend. i started to strap up for the ride.

as to why the uptrend isn’t over, less leverage in the system, haven’t reached peak greed/ euphoria. the last BTC bull peaks never looked like the current market imo. China can’t dump on us this time. Gov printing with infrastructure bull, whales have still been accumulating according to on chain metrics during the dip. All weak hands already sold and gave into fear

 

[themino]

SEND IT!!! 60k BTC
THEY THOUGHT IT WAS OVER

 

[Rain]

SEND IT!!! 60k BTC
THEY THOUGHT IT WAS OVER

I wonder if people will say it's a bear market with the current dip? I think it might go lower still, but still not a bear market.
Perhaps the second leg of the bull market is not confirmed yet, but price not gone far enough south to call it a bear market.

How is everyones trading going?
This current dip was to be expcted due to the bearish divergence. I even took a screenshot of ETHUSD a few days ago, showing this for my own notes, and have attached it. I thought maybe more data was needed. Either way, price did go south. See how it was at about 4,000 and then compare that with the second screenshot how it just went south down to 3,000.

Screenshot a few days ago




Then, bearish divergence played out and price went south see below drop from 4,000



Notice how sp500 also fell a bit on the same day, and yeah, crypto went with it! Perhaps sp500 falls more, and crypto does as well. There looks like there might be bearish divergence on the sp500 daily timeframe still. However, if who is it, the fed? keeps buying up the sp500, then that might prevent that drop.


I've put some Naturalgas shorts orders on, we have price stretched from 10EMA on 4hr time frame and look at the divergence.

Here's a screenshot showing bearish divergence on Naturalgas



The other thing with Naturalgas, we are currently gone up since August of about 1.2 in the price, and in three recent times this happened near end of year, price fell back by 0.8 in the price. So I may keep these shorts on longer, or close some at 38fib 4hr timeframe miniswing[which starts at the opposing coloured bear/bull bar for this pullback system of mine] but keep rest on or something, due to this other homework I've done looking at natural gas recently.

Even forgetting my pullbacks system, the dailytime frame Naturalgas, price is at the top of a rising wedge, which those patterns tend to be bearish. Price has not closed above it[atlhough it might, have to wait and see] so if you just played the wedge, eg sell at resistance, sell high, you could look at it that way too. Don't forget the bearish divergence! Of course, there are no guarantees about trading ideas.

 

[Rain]

I've put some shorts on copper xcuusd over the last few hours. On the 4hr timeframe, price has become stretched above 10EMA red line. Notice the vertical blue line, how, price became the length of one full vertical blue line, so now price has become stretched. Then it just became more and more stretched, while the 10EMA stayed down there, so I put more orders on as it went up since it had not pulled back.

I expect a pullback to the 38fib minimum, but far more likely the 618fib, in a most likely a maximum of 5x trading days.
If it goes up more next week before a pullback, I'd lengthen the fibonacci end point as price goes up. I'd still most likely expect a 618pullback within 5 trading days of today. Nothing is guaranteed.

Notice how I've drawn the fib level start point; from the low between where price got stretched and the last opposite coloured bar. So its the 618fib that I've drawn on the chart, that's the context of my expectation of where price is likely to go, the 435 area at this stage.

 

[Rain]

Update on that trade that I took with Copper.

Price has come down to that 618fib level, around 435area, like I thought it would based on probability.

I closed most of my trades. Left two lower volume trades on, but it bounced up, so closed them as well. Overall, well in the green pip zone[eg very profitable, not anywhere near a loss].

Chart attached.

 

[themino]

I longed my triple long longs today.

I go to moon or bust

we still bull

 

[themino]

People still think its a bear as of today. funding still negative.

Also I admit my mistake on my earlier call on the breakout of 50k. longs got squeezed. including me. But that's behind us, we still go up.

 

[Rain]

People still think its a bear as of today. funding still negative.

Hi,

I haven't looked into too much with funding and stuff. But, you mentioned was it China can't dump on the market this time?
I saw something about how its not just Evergrande that is losing stock perecentage, its like the top 10 property developer companies in China that are all losing stock value and they have debts? The reason this affects outside China is because they invested in many countries as well. That's the domino effect if they keep losing stock price?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1437592737373622272

That shows their property developer losing stock price or am I misunderstanding? and he says in that tweet about yeah, losing big money would have flow on effect like in Feb 2020. But I haven't looked into this but wondered if you have. This might tie in with below.

Short term, the sp500 has closed below that trendline, its looking like it might be risk off algos and emotions at least short term. Silver has gone down as well. Risk off means cryptos likely go down.

Also, the total crypto market cap has closed on the 12hr timeframe below 2.14area, if it stays below there end of the day, it might send it lower next week. Or, could close back above it next week, and be a false breakout. But the latter, based on the other stuff might be less probable.
Maybe if bitcoin got back above 53k? I'm just very hesitant add to any crypto longs at the moment.

The other thing, which I haven't looked into much, but something baout USDX might be headed up, and that might send crypto south as well? But I haven't cross checked the charts on that one.


The last few days I've taken more Copper trades but didn't want to spam the thread. Anyway, its become stretched again right now from the 10EMA red squiggly line which is at about 430.1 in the screenshot below. I have one long/buy order on at the moment. I have buy limit orders waiting if it goes lower before getting a pullback. I start with lower volume, and gradually increase volume on the orders as price becomes more stretched.

Depending on what price does, most likely a 618fib pullback to be expected. 618fib is currently about 431.8 area.
But, if price goes down more before pulling back, I would extend the fib lower, eg so the "0" point ends up where ever the swing low ends up being, and then the 618fib area would have a differnet price level to 431.8, but would still be the 618fib.

I've drawn some lines on the chart.
The green lines are a descending channel, perhaps we bounce off channel support?
The red lines are a very slight ascending channel.
But, perhaps the channels don't have enough touches, plus its the 4hr time frame[less volume compared to daily, so less reliable]

Maybe the very slight ascending channel is an upward sloping flag battern, so price might go lower.
Either way, if it does, that's fine, I will buy more and await the pullback.

 

[themino]

Hi,

I haven't looked into too much with funding and stuff. But, you mentioned was it China can't dump on the market this time?
I saw something about how its not just Evergrande that is losing stock perecentage, its like the top 10 property developer companies in China that are all losing stock value and they have debts? The reason this affects outside China is because they invested in many countries as well. That's the domino effect if they keep losing stock price?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1437592737373622272

That shows their property developer losing stock price or am I misunderstanding? and he says in that tweet about yeah, losing big money would have flow on effect like in Feb 2020. But I haven't looked into this but wondered if you have. This might tie in with below.

Short term, the sp500 has closed below that trendline, its looking like it might be risk off algos and emotions at least short term. Silver has gone down as well. Risk off means cryptos likely go down.

Also, the total crypto market cap has closed on the 12hr timeframe below 2.14area, if it stays below there end of the day, it might send it lower next week. Or, could close back above it next week, and be a false breakout. But the latter, based on the other stuff might be less probable.
Maybe if bitcoin got back above 53k? I'm just very hesitant add to any crypto longs at the moment.

The other thing, which I haven't looked into much, but something baout USDX might be headed up, and that might send crypto south as well? But I haven't cross checked the charts on that one.


The last few days I've taken more Copper trades but didn't want to spam the thread. Anyway, its become stretched again right now from the 10EMA red squiggly line which is at about 430.1 in the screenshot below. I have one long/buy order on at the moment. I have buy limit orders waiting if it goes lower before getting a pullback. I start with lower volume, and gradually increase volume on the orders as price becomes more stretched.

Depending on what price does, most likely a 618fib pullback to be expected. 618fib is currently about 431.8 area.
But, if price goes down more before pulling back, I would extend the fib lower, eg so the "0" point ends up where ever the swing low ends up being, and then the 618fib area would have a differnet price level to 431.8, but would still be the 618fib.

I've drawn some lines on the chart.
The green lines are a descending channel, perhaps we bounce off channel support?
The red lines are a very slight ascending channel.
But, perhaps the channels don't have enough touches, plus its the 4hr time frame[less volume compared to daily, so less reliable]

Maybe the very slight ascending channel is an upward sloping flag battern, so price might go lower.
Either way, if it does, that's fine, I will buy more and await the pullback.

I don't know what will happen with Evergrande or if it will effect the broader market. China will intervene, since it is so big, but they might just censor discussion/ protest and let the company implode. Right now the outcome is uncertain so we should just follow the issue. I follow this guys market newsletter who provided an analyses of Ever grand and should provide further insight as information arises.

Global Macro Update - 9/17/2021

US dollar strength and Chinese defaults

thebitcoinlayer.substack.com

btw we broke the descending channel
we go up

 

[themino]

when funding is negative shorts are paying a fee hourly to keep short positions open on BTC perpetuals. Also means there are more shorts than longs

 

[MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla]

I don't know what will happen with Evergrande or if it will effect the broader market. China will intervene, since it is so big, but they might just censor discussion/ protest and let the company implode. Right now the outcome is uncertain so we should just follow the issue. I follow this guys market newsletter who provided an analyses of Ever grand and should provide further insight as information arises.

Global Macro Update - 9/17/2021

US dollar strength and Chinese defaults

thebitcoinlayer.substack.com

btw we broke the descending channel
we go up

Yea I mentioned the YING YANG last month but if you also take a look at KORU you can see the various markets are starting to have abit of a shake.

I’m back in on semi conductor shorts.

Crypto market had a pump for hbar where I sold off my hbar and I’m hoping it sinks back down and then I’ll buy in again.

 

[Rain]

Those naturalgas shorts I had on, the hold them longer idea played out and I closed them recently for profit.

I did put another short on natural gas, not based on pullbacks 4hrs, but based on:
-daily timeframe bearish pinbar/hammer[closed back below wedge resistance, although not by much and not on all the different feeds], and
-the 10EMA and 20EMA are quite 'wide' on the daily timeframe and its high probability that when we get this wide, on natural gas daily timeframe, that price pulls back to somewhere in that green zone. I drew a green vertical bar on the chart.
-price has 4hr close back inside that rising wedge broadening wedge resistance. A 'false breakout' like this usually have extended move to the other side. eg a daily close would be more proper confirmation of this.
-The falling wedge itself is also a bearish pattern
-The weekly timeframe has a giant weekly pinbar on it, and its also still above the 10EMA and 20EMA weekly timeframe.
-if sp500 keeps falling, it might take natural gas with it until it stops.
-The last 2weeks natural gas storage has gone up, meaning more supply. That's only a maybe though, as I have not tested this to see how much probability there is behind it.

I also have gone long, because its stretched to the downside on the 4hrs again[eg from the 10EMA], and incase price does not come down to that green wide thing I mentioned, if price goes up , thats based on my 4hr timeframe pullback system anyway.

Copper update. Oh did copper get stretched to the downside! I had buy limit orders waiting as it went down, and gradually more volume. As you see in the third chart, I extended the fib level to the current low. We did get a 23fib pullback on the way down but thats not my target, I did not close anything.

Chart1 comparison with previous post about natural gas 4hrs. Price has gone down more since then.

Chart2 showing daily timeframe natural gas, showing rising wedge

Chart3 Copper 4hr timeframe pric got stretched more since last time without a proper pullback so extended the fib

 

[Rain]

Natrual gas, I closed that long order for a small profit, it hit the 50fib small mini swing. I still have the short on.

Copper has pulled back to the 618fib area. I closed some of my higher volume orders at the 38fib, and earlier when it was around the 618fib closed all the rest bar one. Perhaps should have left all orders on for the 618fib area, still though, nice green pips/profit locked in. I have left one long on, way down at the 411price area. Thats incase we have a higher timeframe[daily] falling wedge, if that plays out, then I can longer term extend the profit on this one order. aAnd if it doesn't, no biggie, all other longs from that trade are closed anyway so this one specific order would then be a breakeven if I put a stoploss on it, and would not affect the currently locked in green pips at all.

Can you guess? Copper has now gotten stretched to the upside, so here we go again. Put some short orders on. The second chart below shows how I've done it. That first order, I actually forgot to put the order on, or rather, had moved the sell limits way up so I would not enter early on accident, so being pedantic, my first order is actually further up than it should be, that just means slightly better riskreward and/or more profit when price does the high probability pullback, so no biggie. But, I don't want to spend 24/7 at the screen, and I don't want to risk entering too early, so sometimes that happens but no biggie.

If price doesnt go higher than the current high right now of about 425.8 then I expect price to pullback to the 618fib area of about 416area, maybe 417area. Occasionally it doesn't hit the 618fib like this, eg there are no guarantees, not financial advice. But my expectation for myself is that, its highly.

Now, if price goes up, I'll extend the fib, just like I did in chart 1, compared with the chart I posted in my last post when copper was stretched to the downside.

Also, those vertical blue lines, they are just literally, vertical blue lines. I can copy paste them or whatever. They are not an algo or an indicator. Yes they tell me when price is become stretched from the 10EMA, but they are not some computer programming thing. I gone back through the charts and seen where price gets stretched far enough, that its good probability that I can put orders on and I won't have entered too early, there's enough space between the 10EMA and where price is, that a pair pulls back.
Maybe someone who knows programming could write an algo or make it an indicator, maybe. But, I'm pointing out that I just look for any big failures to take note of and to make sure those are not a regular occurence.

And, the size of the vertical blue bar would vary depending on timeframe, and on the pair/instrument you're trading. So that's how I came up with the size of the vertical blue bar.

Chart 1
Copper chart price pulled back, can compare it to my last post, price pulled back yet again to around that 618fib area based of the mini swing.

Chart 2
Copper chart, I've cleaned up the chart a bit to try explain how I trade like this.

 

[Rain]

I don't like what I'm seeing from Copper. Sometimes it takes a few days to pull back, but incase it didn't, I decided to close it.
We also did get a shy 50fib pullback, then it went up, then pulled back and touched the 50fib as shown in the chart below. I have closed all my shorts. Not as much profit as I would have had if I had of closed at the 50fib, but still definitely worth it.

I still have that one Copper long on from when it got stretched to the downside a few days ago that I mentioned. If price can close above that green descending trendline, that would be good for that.

Maybe Copper still comes down in the next few trading days, but either way, I'll have more buy limits if it gets stretched to the downside, and more sell limits waiting if it gets stretched to the upside, from the 10EMA by the size of the blue vertical bar.

 

[MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla]

I don't like what I'm seeing from Copper. Sometimes it takes a few days to pull back, but incase it didn't, I decided to close it.
We also did get a shy 50fib pullback, then it went up, then pulled back and touched the 50fib as shown in the chart below. I have closed all my shorts. Not as much profit as I would have had if I had of closed at the 50fib, but still definitely worth it.

I still have that one Copper long on from when it got stretched to the downside a few days ago that I mentioned. If price can close above that green descending trendline, that would be good for that.

Maybe Copper still comes down in the next few trading days, but either way, I'll have more buy limits if it gets stretched to the downside, and more sell limits waiting if it gets stretched to the upside, from the 10EMA by the size of the blue vertical bar.

To track commodities I use mostly direxion funds that track the overall index’s.

For building supplies the NAIL has been down from all time highs.

COM is still at all time highs, so take that as you will.

DUSL industrials is pretty much over inflated and will crash a couple times in November. My gut says this more ties into the bond market having a cycle.

Last but not least DOZR which is a new fund is going to be tracking soon the us construction engineering service. Keep an eye on that.

 

[Rain]

I added another short to natural gas at about the 5.1 to 5.2 area. But we'll see if price comes down. Its stretched upward on the 4hrs. Maybe it goes up more first. Expecting price go to down to 4.9 area, 50fib unless it goes up more first. But, based on the daily we may go lower than that 4.9 expectation. Maybe 4.6, but we'll see. Price might need to go up a fair bit before that.

@MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla my trades here that I've been posting , alot of them are 'pullback' trades, eg price gets far away from the 10EMA, price pulls back. A video might explain what I'm doing better than a still chart.

But I'm thinking you trade differently, you trade with the trend so that you have no running losses, and/or look for new startups and get on board with those?
I have traded with the trend before, and maybe will in future but most of the ones, that I've posted recently, have been pullbacks type.

 

[Rain]

EDIT: I've also been shorting CADJPY, EURGBP recently, and awaiting a pullback to the downside. They are both stretched from the 10ema on the 4hr timeframes. Price target for CADJPY[if it doesn't make a new high] is about 86.8 618fib. EURGBP if doesn't go higher from here, a 50fib pullback would be about 85.9 area.
I have only attached charts showing natural gas for now though.
Now... if the sp500 does drop, I'm very likely it will take the cadjpy with it.
BUT, that might send the EURGBP further north which is fine by me, I'll just add more shorts at an increased volume. Need to check my notes, but possible 50% pullback on EURGBP in future. or it pullsback 50% fib now, then goes north again as the sp500 falls another idea that could happen.

That one copper long I had on from when it got stretched from the 10EMA a week or two ago, I decided to close it for a profit. The sp500 has come back down, and I'm thinking if it has another big drop, it might take copper with it. So that longer term long idea on copper might not happen[or not yet].

Natural gas currently pulling back to the downside. I did add to my shorts on the way up. I have closed two of them for profit, but I'm leaving the others on for now.

Longer term target is way down around 3.0 area roughly. But it might take weeks/months for that to get reached.
If the sp500 drops bigtime again, it might take natural gas with it.

Look at 5.6 on the daily. It was previous resistance , we closed above it, then next day instant retest on the daily timeframe, price caught a bid there from buyers, now today price hanging around that level. Perhaps a daily close below that, it would then flip to resistance, and price may go south? But I've already got shorts on from earlier post I mentioned down there, so I won't be adding to them.
We also have potential bearish divergence on the daily timeframe.

The reason my longer term target for natural gas down at 3.0 area, is on the weekly timeframe, its high probability that when the 10ema and 20ema get stretched apart from each other[chart2 where the arrow], price likely to come back down there. That's if price is above it, like it is on the weekly now .But if it gets like that, and the price is below it, I'm a bit more cautious to long it, I think from doing my homework on this it was less probable, maybe significantly less probable. So on this pair/trading instrument eg naturalgas/xngusd, that little idea might only work one way with high probability.
Note, I'm talking about the distance between the 10ema and the 20ema, not the distance between price itself and the 10ema, which my pullback trade ideas are based on. Anyway the arrow in the second chart shows this.

First chart showing daily Naturalgas

Second chart showing weekly Naturalgas

 

[Rain]

EURGBP went to the 50% fib level 85.9 area I mentioned in my last post, profit locked in.
It was stretched on the 1hr chart and the 4hr chart. As you can see, I have different sized vertical bars, depending on the timeframe, and also the pair/instrument being traded. I had gotten in based on the 1hr chart, and then based on the 4hrs fib 50%, price did what I thought was highly probably, 85.9 area.



1hr chart

4hr chart

EDIT: Copper has become stretched on the 4hrs from the 10ema.... again. Got some longs on, if it doesn't make a new low, expecting 618fib at the 415.8 area, maybe higher. But there are no guarantees.

EDIT: I still have those CADJPY shorts on I mentioned in my last post, I have now done up a chart. Still expecting the 86.8price area, eg the 618fib on the 4hrs time frame, unless it makes a new high and then I'd extend the fib and would have a changed target.

 

[Rain]

Copper just touched the 618fib at 415area, like I thought it might as per my previous post. Profits locked in when it was between the 50fib and 618fib. I have left one small order on incase it goes up further from here, and if price falls I can close it, obviously. Won't have any big impact on the profit because I won't let it fall far enough to do that, being pedantic incase someone mention this.

 

[Rain]

CADJPY went up further, and I added more shorts. We did get a nearly 50fib pullback on the way up, but I was aiming for more than that eg 618fib.
So, with the fib now extended to the new swing high, the 618fib target is now around 87.0 area. Maybe price goes well below that, possibly due to sp500 dropping potential, as sp500 has a bearish engulfing month at swing high last month.

I"ve also been shorting Gasoline, I can't find it on tradingview may have to upload an mt4 screenshot or something. Anyway its at about 2.40area. Adding shorts due to it getting stretched from the 10EMA on the 4hr timeframe. Target would be 618fib which is about 2.30area. But, I might hold onto them longer.
We have weekly upward sloping flag, bearish.
We have bearish RSI divergence on the weekly timeframe.
We also have sp500 with a bearish engulfing month, also potentially bearish because when that goes down, it takes things with it, like Gasoline
We're also in the time of year ,and Gasoline tends to fall during this months of the year as per this article.

Got some longs on EURGBP stretched from 10EMA on the 1hr timeframe. There's also some daily timeframe price action that I think is bullish long term. If sp500 drops, eurgbp potentially goes up iirc from my notes. Target for the stretched system would be about 0.85. ie 50fib need to check the notes might be further up eg 618fib 0.857

I also added some shorts to naturalgas, stretched on 4hrs a bit. its also at the high point of price moves by x, and then pulls back. so its gone up a certain amoutn since last daily swing low, and nearing its limit[based that off going back through the charts, and how much it rises/falls based on price history]. if it goes up further than that id not add orders until it reached a certain point higher. Also there is bearish divergence daily timeframe. Still have that long term target of much lower, 3.2area iirc, would need to check. but thats could be weeks/months away.