We might get a bottom for cryptos by the end of June 25. Why? Because that's when Bitcoin quarterly futures expires. But we might keep going lower in the meantime? as we see right now over the weekend, but how low, maybe some trendlines on the daily timeframe since about March I think of 2020 iirc.
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The futures are in both directions
do you know what the spread is between issued call and put contracts?
or how much in each direction?
I'm not sure on the spread or how much in each direction.
I do know that the monthly futures expired on the last friday of each month, and 3 out of 4 months this year eg January, February, March all marked the a local bottom/swing low for bitcoin on the daily timeframe.
The possible reason for this, you have whales and also institutions, shorting the market in the weeks leading up to the monthly expirey. So they have to buy in order to cover/offset those positions. Hence why when the monthly futures expired, we got a rally on those three months above.
Those buys trigger a rally. But there are no guarantees, and we didn't get much of a rally in April.
But there are also quarterly futures. Bitcoin current all time high, topped out, shortly after Q2 started. So if bitcoin has followed monthly expirations, it could also possibly do the same thing for the quarterly futures. That's if this theory is whats happening.
I didn't notice this, but I should maybe pay more attention in future to the futures monthly and quarterly timings and see if any patterns emerge. I got it from here, first 3-4mins explains basically what I just wrote, but I can't take credit for it
Issue 13 - The Significance of Q2 Bitcoin Futures Expiration
Will quarterly Bitcoin futures play a role in this correction just as monthly futures have so far in 2021? Here's my theory...
cryptocademy.com
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What I’m getting at is you don’t know the aggregate positions in any direction.I'm not sure on the spread or how much in each direction.
I do know that the monthly futures expired on the last friday of each month, and 3 out of 4 months this year eg January, February, March all marked the a local bottom/swing low for bitcoin on the daily timeframe.
The possible reason for this, you have whales and also institutions, shorting the market in the weeks leading up to the monthly expirey. So they have to buy in order to cover/offset those positions. Hence why when the monthly futures expired, we got a rally on those three months above.
Those buys trigger a rally. But there are no guarantees, and we didn't get much of a rally in April.
But there are also quarterly futures. Bitcoin current all time high, topped out, shortly after Q2 started. So if bitcoin has followed monthly expirations, it could also possibly do the same thing for the quarterly futures. That's if this theory is whats happening.
I didn't notice this, but I should maybe pay more attention in future to the futures monthly and quarterly timings and see if any patterns emerge. I got it from here, first 3-4mins explains basically what I just wrote, but I can't take credit for it
Issue 13 - The Significance of Q2 Bitcoin Futures Expiration
Will quarterly Bitcoin futures play a role in this correction just as monthly futures have so far in 2021? Here's my theory...
on other stocks that stuff is known and available so you can look at how much volume is long or short and can take a stab at whether people are going to have to buy or sell to reconcile their positions.
then the next question is, has that adjustment already been priced into the market, ie, is everyone already expecting the whales to buy / sell and that is already reflected in the price. If it is then the price can go the other way on settlement day.
I still think this is the biggest bull run in history propped up by nothing but the idea a lot of people have got that “it’s gotta go up”
but it doesn’t gotta go up. You can’t actually buy anything major with the stuff.
So it’ll go up until it doesn’t. And when it doesn’t it’ll be a tulip job.
We did get a small swinglow/rally from the area. I don't know the volume like you mention above.
You could buy even less products in the past than with it than now, yet the price of it went up other times.
Here's some data that suggests the bullrun this time is not currently over. This video is free.
Issue 28 - The Case for Lengthening Crypto Cycles
Are crypto cycles for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others getting longer? There is data to suggest it, but let's dig in and find out!
cryptocademy.com
I don't think we have a major swing low right now despite the bounce recently possibly from futures quarterly expiration. The reason is that, while it could be a major swing low, the sp500 is very stretched when you look at the monthly timeframe from its MA[10 exponential moving average]. Using a linear chart, you could make a case its time for or not far off some sort of a pullback.
Also, as sp500 price has gone up the last few weeks, volume has gone down. What does that mean for sp500? It means less conviction/weight behind the uptrend. Of course no guarantees, but if it does fall bigtime, I'd expect some forex pairs to fall, and I'd also expect cryptos to fall.
Volume side note: I don't know if volume is reliable for forex pairs because there's so many different brokers, but I think you can rely on it for crypto and for sp500.
The price history of the charts shows that when sp500 has a sell off, cryptos fall with it. Weekly charts:
Note: BTC trades on weekends, hence has a different weekly start date
SP500 weekly chart -VS- BTCUSD weekly chart
23 feb 20 price big sell off -VS- 24 feb 20 big sell off
30 aug 21 price big sell off -VS- 31 aug 20 small sell off
10 jan 21 price small sell off -VS- 11 jan 21 small sell off
9 may 21 price small sell off -VS- 10 may 21 big sell off
So there's potential for sp500 to have a small or big sell off over the next few weeks and if it takes crypto with it, I will be buying crypto.
Notice today, daily timeframe chart, the USDJPY, CADJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, all selling off, and sp500 has had a small sell off so far. The forex pairs I listed , also sold off bigtime during the week 23feb 20 like sp500 did. "Risk off" is possibly what happens when sp500 falls like this.
Another thing, the sp500 is also in a rising wedge price action pattern. Another bearish signal if it closes below the support level of the rising wedge.
Now whether sp500 is about to sell off bigtime rest of this week, dont know. It might just keep going up. But at some point, its highly likely to sell off, the signs are all there that its a high probability.
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I don't really look into BTC futures. I'd prefer crypto CFDs.
You can see a pattern of sorts if you divide them by Crypto Majors and Crypto EMs. But then treat it as its own asset (something in between commodities/FX).
Some might be getting extraordinarily happy thinking the crypto train is coming back. But you've got to look into the wider market/macro context. Not just the technicals- but there are more technicals.
You'd be right into looking at the risk on/risk off nature of things. But FX majors/crypto/SPX500 are only one part of it.
You can see a pattern of sorts if you divide them by Crypto Majors and Crypto EMs. But then treat it as its own asset (something in between commodities/FX).
Some might be getting extraordinarily happy thinking the crypto train is coming back. But you've got to look into the wider market/macro context. Not just the technicals- but there are more technicals.
You'd be right into looking at the risk on/risk off nature of things. But FX majors/crypto/SPX500 are only one part of it.
i hope u boughtWe did get a small swinglow/rally from the area. I don't know the volume like you mention above.
You could buy even less products in the past than with it than now, yet the price of it went up other times.
Here's some data that suggests the bullrun this time is not currently over. This video is free.
But no guarantees, like you said it could be over but I'm not convinced it is. I think it's worth the risk, especially if you buy lower than where it is right now:Issue 28 - The Case for Lengthening Crypto Cycles
Are crypto cycles for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others getting longer? There is data to suggest it, but let's dig in and find out!
I don't think we have a major swing low right now despite the bounce recently possibly from futures quarterly expiration. The reason is that, while it could be a major swing low, the sp500 is very stretched when you look at the monthly timeframe from its MA[10 exponential moving average]. Using a linear chart, you could make a case its time for or not far off some sort of a pullback.
Also, as sp500 price has gone up the last few weeks, volume has gone down. What does that mean for sp500? It means less conviction/weight behind the uptrend. Of course no guarantees, but if it does fall bigtime, I'd expect some forex pairs to fall, and I'd also expect cryptos to fall.
Volume side note: I don't know if volume is reliable for forex pairs because there's so many different brokers, but I think you can rely on it for crypto and for sp500.
The price history of the charts shows that when sp500 has a sell off, cryptos fall with it. Weekly charts:
Note: BTC trades on weekends, hence has a different weekly start date
SP500 weekly chart -VS- BTCUSD weekly chart
23 feb 20 price big sell off -VS- 24 feb 20 big sell off
30 aug 21 price big sell off -VS- 31 aug 20 small sell off
10 jan 21 price small sell off -VS- 11 jan 21 small sell off
9 may 21 price small sell off -VS- 10 may 21 big sell off
So there's potential for sp500 to have a small or big sell off over the next few weeks and if it takes crypto with it, I will be buying crypto.
Notice today, daily timeframe chart, the USDJPY, CADJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, all selling off, and sp500 has had a small sell off so far. The forex pairs I listed , also sold off bigtime during the week 23feb 20 like sp500 did. "Risk off" is possibly what happens when sp500 falls like this.
Another thing, the sp500 is also in a rising wedge price action pattern. Another bearish signal if it closes below the support level of the rising wedge.
Now whether sp500 is about to sell off bigtime rest of this week, dont know. It might just keep going up. But at some point, its highly likely to sell off, the signs are all there that its a high probability.
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Still holding. Bitcoin, eth, BAT, monero and FTX Token.
But I’m prepping to exit Bitcoin I ended up holding for way too long I don’t want a secondary dump to occur and be left bag holding.
SOXL I have shorts on from when it was at 47. I think it’ll hit sub forty in the next two months
But I’m prepping to exit Bitcoin I ended up holding for way too long I don’t want a secondary dump to occur and be left bag holding.
SOXL I have shorts on from when it was at 47. I think it’ll hit sub forty in the next two months
Hi,
Yes I did buy some ETHUSD and LTCUSD. I have closed most for profit, am expecting a pullback. I left a little on incase the pullback doesn't happen.
What makes you think Bitcoin is going to come down? I agree about a pullback, wondered what your reasons were
I think there's probability it will pullback because:
-RSI shows some bearish divergence on the daily and 4hr charts Bitcoin, eg price went up, but RSI went down[made a LH].
-RSI also has this bearish divergence for ETHUSD but 4hrs timeframe chart only.
-ETH had 13 green candles in a row on coinbase daily chart, then one red candle, then a bunch more green. Eg without much of a pullback, it rallied again, so I'd expect a pullback. This sort of many mostly same colour candles on a daily chart, without a pullback, I think its likely we will get a pullback.
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i went in on 2x leverage long at 2.4k eth back in june and held through the 1700 dip to now. i’m holding this position till eth is 25k per coin next yearHi,
Yes I did buy some ETHUSD and LTCUSD. I have closed most for profit, am expecting a pullback. I left a little on incase the pullback doesn't happen.
What makes you think Bitcoin is going to come down? I agree about a pullback, wondered what your reasons were
I think there's probability it will pullback because:
-RSI shows some bearish divergence on the daily and 4hr charts Bitcoin, eg price went up, but RSI went down[made a LH].
-RSI also has this bearish divergence for ETHUSD but 4hrs timeframe chart only.
-ETH had 13 green candles in a row on coinbase daily chart, then one red candle, then a bunch more green. Eg without much of a pullback, it rallied again, so I'd expect a pullback. This sort of many mostly same colour candles on a daily chart, without a pullback, I think its likely we will get a pullback.
no pullback when just blew past all resistance on both BTC and ETH charts.
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SOXL hit sub forty today which I wasn’t prepped for. So I dumped my Bitcoin.
Still holding the rest, I’m assuming this has to do with the American 3.5 trillion next week.
Once again boys I’m going to say this much, if you take a look at the -ticker YANG/YING you can see the Chinese market is going through an absolute suicidal dump right now. I’m incredibly worried.
Anybody else feeling an absolute air of paranoia and sketchy ness or is it just me?
Still holding the rest, I’m assuming this has to do with the American 3.5 trillion next week.
Once again boys I’m going to say this much, if you take a look at the -ticker YANG/YING you can see the Chinese market is going through an absolute suicidal dump right now. I’m incredibly worried.
Anybody else feeling an absolute air of paranoia and sketchy ness or is it just me?
Sometimes we have pullbacks. I did close most of my ETHUSD, so if we do pullback, especially big big pullback I'm covered. Can always buy at a discount during the pullback, and if not, still can still buy it again if the pullback doesn't happen, using the money just made from closing those ETHUSD. But this pullback, if we get it, there was signs it was going to happen.
Is there a reason you 'held the rest' but closed most of your Bitcoin? I think there's a chance Monero and other crypto also has a pullback, since crypto markets at this moment tend to be reasonably correlated. But I don't know if that includes the stocks you mention. The sp500 , if it breaks below the rising wedge on the daily timeframe, maybe those other stocks you have might come down with it? But I have not researched this, I don't know about that , I haven't looked for correlations or similarities etc, I do more forex, gold, silver, crypto, haven't too much experience with stocks.
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SOXL pretty much tracks the PHLX index. Which tracks the semi conductor industry. Who is the main players in the semi conductor industry? Taiwan Semicondors.
While I do not see a huge correlation between crypto and this stock is is more of a bell weather for economic activity in relation to crypto. A way way way way better bell weather then the S&P 500 which is just detached from reality at this point.
Crypto wise Bitcoin is the boomer crypto coin. Link has some applicable use, monero allows me anonymous 100% untraceable money transactions and the other stuff like ETH, HBAR etc….. more so to hold value and get stake interest
the chinese gov is cracking down on tech and killed private education.. either buy the dip and wait for the long recovery ( fear is the best time to buy) or stay out. this phenomenon is isolated to the Chinese stonks, and since china already banned crypto i’m even less worried about the chinese state manipulating the crypto market
I don't think the bull market is off. But I'm not sure there is enough data to suggest pullbacks are over. So I wondered what your analysis was that makes you say that?